As the 2027 general elections approach, the Labour Party (LP), once energized by the “Peter Obi effect,” appears to be losing its influence and membership across Nigeria.
At the inauguration of the 10th National Assembly on June 13, 2023, the Labour Party held the third-largest caucus, with 34 members in the House of Representatives and eight senators. The party had surged to national prominence, particularly in the Southeast, South-South, North-Central, and Lagos, thanks to Obi’s popularity. However, 18 months later, the LP’s caucus is rapidly shrinking.
Court rulings and defections have taken a toll on the Labour Party’s ranks. Four lawmakers—Senator Darlington Nwakocha, Stainless Nwodo, Emeka Nnamani, and Chijioke Okereke—lost their seats due to legal battles. Meanwhile, a wave of defections has seen six members of the House of Representatives leave the party in just ten days, most joining the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
Last week, Chinedu Okere, Mathew Donatus, Akiba Bassey, and Esosa Iyawe defected to the APC. This week, Dalyop Chollom and Alfred Ajang from Plateau State followed suit. Earlier in July, Senator Ezenwa Onyewuchi also left for the APC.
Some defections have gone unannounced. For example, Thaddeus Atta, a Labour Party lawmaker, was recently seen wearing a cap branded with President Bola Tinubu’s logo, sparking rumors of his alignment with the APC.
Most defectors cite the ongoing leadership crisis within the Labour Party as justification for their actions, using the constitutional exception in Section 68(g) of the 1999 Constitution, which allows lawmakers to retain their seats if there is a division within their party.
The Labour Party is embroiled in a leadership tussle between Julius Abure’s National Working Committee (NWC) and a faction led by Governor Alex Otti of Abia State. This division has deepened uncertainty among members and fueled defections.
The Abure-led NWC has taken legal action against the defecting lawmakers, demanding the return of all salaries and allowances received since their defection. Party spokesperson Obiora Ifoh described the defections as “unfortunate and condemnable,” accusing the defectors of betraying their constituents.
George Ozodinobi, head of the Labour Party caucus in the House of Representatives, issued a veiled warning to defectors:
“We look forward to meeting them again in 2027, if they have the opportunity to be here.”
Adding to the party’s challenges are rumors of Peter Obi’s potential departure from the Labour Party. Speculation intensified after Obi met with former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, fueling talks of a possible joint ticket with the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in 2027.
The Labour Party’s presence in the National Assembly has diminished significantly. Its senators now number six, down from eight, while its House members have dropped from 34 to 26, leaving the party with 32 lawmakers overall. If the trend continues, the Labour Party risks losing its position as the third-largest party in the National Assembly, trailing behind the APC, PDP, and possibly even the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).
With a dwindling caucus, internal divisions, and uncertainty surrounding its most prominent figure, the Labour Party faces an uphill battle to maintain its relevance ahead of the 2027 elections. Whether it can recover and retain its momentum remains to be seen.
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